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NeuroGenix

Staking - Personal Script Made! :D

28 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, Assume said:

It has always accounted for strength levels and max hits. If you're xing @ greater than 1.1 with 100m duels, I'd recommend a bank roll of 100b.

This can be settled relatively easy, here are the results I get from my simulator for the following stats:

****ALL DUELS BELOW ARE SINGLE WEAPON ONLY, SO WHIPPING BASICALLY*****

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 ------- everything is the same

Results over 50,000 simulations - P1: 50.12%

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 75, S: 95, D: 60, H: 99 ------- p1 max 25, p2 max 24... same weapon, same accuracy.

Results over 50,000 simulations - P1: 54.26%

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 74, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 ------ p1 max 25, p2 max 24... different weapon, different accuracy.

Results over 50,000 simulations - P1: 55.78%

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next we can do a little test with x'ing, set your simulator to only 500 duels and we will use the last example where player one had 55% except we will be player two which requires 1.26x and we will receive 1.6x.

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 74, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 ------ p1 max 25, p2 max 24... different weapon, different accuracy.

1) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 57.8%, P2: 42.2%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 48.6m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

2) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 51.4%, P2: 48.6%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 131.8m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

3) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 57.4%, P2: 42.6%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 53.8m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

4) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 59.8%, P2: 40.2%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 22.6m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

5) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 55.8%, P2: 44.2%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 74.6m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

 

Now it is clear to see that over 500 duels there is variance, of course there is. However, at 1.6x this is still profitable and doesn't require 1000+ bets to beat variance. It is my opinion that if you have a 1000m bank you can do 1-20m duels, giving you a range of 1000 down to 50 bets.

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1 hour ago, NeuroGenix said:

This can be settled relatively easy, here are the results I get from my simulator for the following stats:

****ALL DUELS BELOW ARE SINGLE WEAPON ONLY, SO WHIPPING BASICALLY*****

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 ------- everything is the same

Results over 50,000 simulations - P1: 50.12%

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 75, S: 95, D: 60, H: 99 ------- p1 max 25, p2 max 24... same weapon, same accuracy.

Results over 50,000 simulations - P1: 54.26%

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 74, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 ------ p1 max 25, p2 max 24... different weapon, different accuracy.

Results over 50,000 simulations - P1: 55.78%

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next we can do a little test with x'ing, set your simulator to only 500 duels and we will use the last example where player one had 55% except we will be player two which requires 1.26x and we will receive 1.6x.

Player 1: A: 75, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 --- Player 2: A: 74, S: 96, D: 60, H: 99 ------ p1 max 25, p2 max 24... different weapon, different accuracy.

1) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 57.8%, P2: 42.2%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 48.6m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

2) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 51.4%, P2: 48.6%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 131.8m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

3) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 57.4%, P2: 42.6%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 53.8m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

4) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 59.8%, P2: 40.2%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 22.6m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

5) Results over 500 simulations - P1: 55.8%, P2: 44.2%

Player 2 receiving 1.6x profits by 74.6m doing 1m stakes at 1.6x.

 

Now it is clear to see that over 500 duels there is variance, of course there is. However, at 1.6x this is still profitable and doesn't require 1000+ bets to beat variance. It is my opinion that if you have a 1000m bank you can do 1-20m duels, giving you a range of 1000 down to 50 bets.

Why would anyone agree to do 1.6x on a 1.26x advtange?

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5 hours ago, Assume said:

Why would anyone agree to do 1.6x on a 1.26x advtange?

I take it we aren't going to do a little test on both our calculators? Btw, all those calculations were done with the combat style on controlled, but moving on..

Various reasons, the simplest being that the majority of players have no idea what their actual win percent is so they don't realize they only have a slight advantage. Let's look at a few examples:

Us:

  1. Combat Level: 85.97
  2. Attack: 75 - Strength: 88 - Defense: 30 - Health: 87 - Prayer: 31
  3. Max hit: 23

Opponent:

  1. Combat Level: 97.25
  2. Attack: 80 - Strength: 80 - Defense: 80 - Health: 80 - Prayer: 43
  3. Max Hit: 21

Who has the advantage here? Just looking at the combat levels alone which most people do, our opponent has +5 attack and +50 defense, we have +8 strength and +7 health... overall our opponent has +40 levels, surely he must have the advantage?

Until we look at our max hit being +2 and vitally our health being +7, the only advantage our opponent has is 91% accuracy versus our 78% a mere 13% for +50 defense levels. My simulator gives me the following results (200,000 simulations, both players using accuracy, single weapon only):

  1. We win 52.4%
  2. We win 52.33%
  3. We win 52.48%

So we actually have an advantage, our opponent requires 1.1x to break even. I've had people x me in situations like the one just described, I know these things because I have done them repeatedly, people do x, fact.

Quick example where we require 1.2x and could easily get 1.6x or more:

Our stats: A: 75, S: 93, D: 30, H: 92, P: 31 - CB: 88

Opp stats: A: 81, S: 91, D: 81, H: 85, P: 52 - CB: 103

Our opponent has +6 att, -2 str, +51 def, -7hp, +15cb levels.... So overall +48 stats and +15cb, yet our win% is 45.22% meaning we only require 1.21x to break even... This is a simple situation that comes up all the time, main accounts have random builds like this, and we could easily ask for 1.6x, even 2x lol.

Hopefully this illustrates my point :)

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