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NeuroGenix

Staking - Personal Script Made! :D

28 posts in this topic

Hi everyone, thought I would share my personal achievement of creating a manual staking script. Currently at 270m profit from two accounts in two weeks, however my total play time in those two weeks is no more than 20 hours maximum (a lot of study for uni at the moment).

 

5AxD4x1.png

 

So what are you looking at?

 

There are three boxes:

 

  1. Whip Duel (Weapon on, special attack off)
  2. Dds Duel (Weapon on, special attack on)
  3. Box Duel (Weapon off)

Each box gives me a win percentage against this specific player, and also what 'x' I require.

 

To get this information it simulates 100,000 duels between me and the opponent. It gets my attack style from the GUI, but assumes the opponent is using a mixture of all styles (This gives our opponent like +1% advantage in the results, which in my opinion is good since I feel it is better to assume my opponent is better rather than worse). It also works out what weapon we are using, for example if my (or the opponents) attack level is higher than 60 but lower than 70, I am using a dragon scimitar.

 

Now it has the information it requires, it simulates the duels and to simulate 300,000 duels takes approximately 4 seconds (LOL).

 

The boxes then change color:

 

  1. Green: Win percent 55+
  2. Yellow: Win percent 35-55
  3. Red: Win percent below 35

It also makes a beeping sound whenever I receive a challenge. Oh and it only has to calculate each opponents win% once, because it stores everything in a hashmap with the opponent as an object and their name as the reference.

 

So, now staking is easy... I just watch youtube, or revise, or whatever until I hear the beep then I quickly identify if my opponent is worth staking based on the colors on screen, simple :D

 

I probably won't be updating this thread much until summer, however during the summer holidays I plan on:

 

  1. Creating a goal thread, see if I can reach 1B over summer? Easy imo.
  2. Create the fully automatic staking script, shouldn't be too difficult the logic is actually so easy for duelling, hardest part was making it dds spec and switch weapons without missing a hit, but that's done now, only real issue currently is updating the opponents bet.
  3. Create 10+ staking accounts, should take a month tops (may consider just buying them).

Anyways, let me know what you thing! Btw I will not be sharing my script, maybe one day I will go for a scripter rank and sell it but honestly a staking script with an "ACCURATE" calculator would be too expensive for most people, especially with the ability to "x". When I say too expensive, I mean how much profit I'd make using it alone, versus how much I'd lose releasing it.

 

Edit: Forgot to mention the top box, has the opponent's name and combat levels - I need to add in a combat level calculator, very simple, just to make sure my opponent doesn't have unlogged levels. (e.g. in-game level == level based on  online stats).

Edited by NeuroGenix
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Impressive to say the least, if all odds are accurate then very good job.

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First off I'd like to say good job dude, congrats on the winnings.

 

However, your script (or anyone's for that matter) is unable to calculate "luck", and you can very well be cleaned even though you're facing slightly your odds. Third, there is already a staking script that calculates odds, and it costs $25 a month: https://tribot.org/forums/topic/24614-assume-staker-one-hour-free-trial-2147b-2147bhr40bprofit116hrddswhipboxscim/

 

Good job though dude, although personally I wouldn't use a script as staking in itself is pretty fun for me. Just my take on it tbh, best of luck and don't get cleaned :D

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Impressive to say the least, if all odds are accurate then very good job.

 

Thank you.

 

I believe the odds to be as accurate as it is possible to be. It literally simulates a duel, with the same information the game uses in a duel but it does 100,000 duels in 2 seconds :P

 

First off I'd like to say good job dude, congrats on the winnings.

 

However, your script (or anyone's for that matter) is unable to calculate "luck", and you can very well be cleaned even though you're facing slightly your odds. Third, there is already a staking script that calculates odds, and it costs $25 a month: https://tribot.org/forums/topic/24614-assume-staker-one-hour-free-trial-2147b-2147bhr40bprofit116hrddswhipboxscim/

 

Good job though dude, although personally I wouldn't use a script as staking in itself is pretty fun for me. Just my take on it tbh, best of luck and don't get cleaned :D

 

Thank you :D

 

I don't believe in "luck", there is only "variance". Variance is misinterpreted as luck, for example you flip a coin 20 times and you get heads 15 times, you think you got lucky, but if you flipped it 10,000 times it would be closer to 50%, probably in the region of 49-51%. What is important to note is bankroll management, to make sure variance doesn't bust you. For example, let's say I had 20m and was doing 5m stakes, it is very likely I would get busted even with 55% because my opponent only requires a 4 streak, however if I had 60 bets in my bank he would need an incredible run of variance, and it just isn't likely to happen. Especially when my bank is usually bigger than my opponents, and the odds are always in my favour or at least my expected value is always positive.

 

I don't really want to talk about Assume's staking script, but I have proven (in my mind, and others) that his script's calculator is wrong. You can view the posts I made about it in his thread, he hasn't deleted them because he believes in his calculator which is fair enough it is his and he is allowed. I don't really want to say much more, all the information you need to know about it is in his thread if you're curious :)

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Thank you.

 

I believe the odds to be as accurate as it is possible to be. It literally simulates a duel, with the same information the game uses in a duel but it does 100,000 duels in 2 seconds :P

 

 

Thank you :D

 

I don't believe in "luck", there is only "variance". Variance is misinterpreted as luck, for example you flip a coin 20 times and you get heads 15 times, you think you got lucky, but if you flipped it 10,000 times it would be closer to 50%, probably in the region of 49-51%. What is important to note is bankroll management, to make sure variance doesn't bust you. For example, let's say I had 20m and was doing 5m stakes, it is very likely I would get busted even with 55% because my opponent only requires a 4 streak, however if I had 60 bets in my bank he would need an incredible run of variance, and it just isn't likely to happen. Especially when my bank is usually bigger than my opponents, and the odds are always in my favour or at least my expected value is always positive.

 

I don't really want to talk about Assume's staking script, but I have proven (in my mind, and others) that his script's calculator is wrong. You can view the posts I made about it in his thread, he hasn't deleted them because he believes in his calculator which is fair enough it is his and he is allowed. I don't really want to say much more, all the information you need to know about it is in his thread if you're curious :)

 

Haha I'll give it a look when I have the time. You have a point there though man, but that only works if you're staking the exact same amount every time. Since this is a script, I'm assuming you're calling stakes from people who challenge you rather than it challenging people itself then putting up 5M. 

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Haha I'll give it a look when I have the time. You have a point there though man, but that only works if you're staking the exact same amount every time. Since this is a script, I'm assuming you're calling stakes from people who challenge you rather than it challenging people itself then putting up 5M. 

 

It doesn't actually matter if they stake less or more, that is similar to the gambler's fallacy. Have you heard about "expected value"?

 

Below is the equation:

( A * B ) + ( C * -D) = Expected Value

 

A = Our win percent

B = The opponent's stake value

C = Their win percent

D = Our stake value

 

Example, I have 55% and we are doing 5m, 10m and 20m.

( 0.55 * 5000000 ) + ( 0.45 * -5000000) = 500,000

( 0.55 * 10000000 ) + ( 0.45 * -10000000) = 1,000,000

( 0.55 * 20000000 ) + ( 0.45 * -20000000) = 2,000,000

 

Expected value, shows you how much you profit from every single fight if you win or lose, it is in the long run. So let's us imagine someone does 5m loses, does 10m loses, does 20m wins... We are down 5m but in the long-term we actually profited 2+1+0.5 = 3.5m in expected value. So when this same situation occurs in the future, I will most likely win.. It's that thing variance again, the more we do the closer to the actual probability we become.

 

The whole doubling always win's idea people have, this is why it is wrong lol, eventually the person with the odds in their favour will win no matter how tricky you get with the bet sizes, its why casinos in las vegas make millions from a 3% advantage lol, 3% advantage multiplied hundreds of thousands of times = inevitable win. That is why all that matters is bankroll management, it is the most important thing in gambling.

 

Edit:

 

Expected value is also how "x'ing" works, let me show you

 

you have 60% and I only have 40%. To break even I require 60/40 = 1.5x, anything above and I profit in the long term.

 

Me: 1m

You: 1.5m

 

( 0.4 * 1500000) + (0.6 * -1000000) = 0

 

Let's say you do 2x

 

( 0.4 * 2000000) + (0.6 * -1000000) = 200,000 - I make 200k every single time we duel at 2x.

 

40 * 2000000 = 80,000,000

60 * 1000000 = 60,000,000

( 80,000,000 - 60,000,000 ) / 100 = 200,000 ... Just showing the equation is right (this is 100 duels if the odds come out exact)

Edited by NeuroGenix
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It doesn't actually matter if they stake less or more, that is similar to the gambler's fallacy. Have you heard about "expected value"?

 

Below is the equation:

( A * B ) + ( C * -D) = Expected Value

 

A = Our win percent

B = The opponent's stake value

C = Their win percent

D = Our stake value

 

Example, I have 55% and we are doing 5m, 10m and 20m.

( 0.55 * 5000000 ) + ( 0.45 * -5000000) = 500,000

( 0.55 * 10000000 ) + ( 0.45 * -10000000) = 1,000,000

( 0.55 * 20000000 ) + ( 0.45 * -20000000) = 2,000,000

 

Expected value, shows you how much you profit from every single fight if you win or lose, it is in the long run. So let's us imagine someone does 5m loses, does 10m loses, does 20m wins... We are down 5m but in the long-term we actually profited 2+1+0.5 = 3.5m in expected value. So when this same situation occurs in the future, I will most likely win.. It's that thing variance again, the more we do the closer to the actual probability we become.

 

The whole doubling always win's idea people have, this is why it is wrong lol, eventually the person with the odds in their favour will win no matter how tricky you get with the bet sizes, its why casinos in las vegas make millions from a 3% advantage lol, 3% advantage multiplied hundreds of thousands of times = inevitable win. That is why all that matters is bankroll management, it is the most important thing in gambling.

 

Edit:

 

Expected value is also how "x'ing" works, let me show you

 

you have 60% and I only have 40%. To break even I require 60/40 = 1.5x, anything above and I profit in the long term.

 

Me: 1m

You: 1.5m

 

( 0.4 * 1500000) + (0.6 * -1000000) = 0

 

Let's say you do 2x

 

( 0.4 * 2000000) + (0.6 * -1000000) = 200,000 - I make 200k every single time we duel at 2x.

 

40 * 2000000 = 80,000,000

60 * 1000000 = 60,000,000

( 80,000,000 - 60,000,000 ) / 100 = 200,000 ... Just showing the equation is right (this is 100 duels if the odds come out exact)

 

What about betting/staking on 50/50 odds? How would you go about doing bankroll management on same win chance odds?

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What about betting/staking on 50/50 odds? How would you go about doing bankroll management on same win chance odds?

 

I personally wouldn't ever do 50/50 odds, I mean with good bankroll management all you can hope to achieve is break even. At 50/50 I always make my opponent x me, so when the variance equals out I am winning.

 

However, with that being said it is possible to win at 50/50. You simply win by having better bankroll management than your opponent, for example you have 500m and he has 50m and you are doing 10m stakes. You would be "unlucky" to lose, however, he is almost expected to lose. It's called chance of ruin or something like that, he can only withstand 5 loses whereas you can handle 50, it is more likely you will streak 5 than he will streak 50, if you streak 5 he is unable to continue and therefore can never realise his expected value.

 

Still, my final note on this is 50/50 should just break even and isn't really worth it, that is why you see these accounts with 98 97 98 99 who only fight maxed accounts with like 1.2x. 98 97 99 99 requires like 1.03x to break even, so they profit in the long term versus maxed accounts at 1.2x.

 

Seen the guys doing 100-1000m at 1.1x vs maxed accounts, look at the expected value:

 

Player one: 49% - 100,000,000

Player two: 51% - 110,000,000

 

(0.49 * 110000000) + (0.51 * -100000000) = 2,900,000 or 29m for 1000m vs 1100m... Thats $2.9 or $29 PER FIGHT! in expected value.

 

At 1.2x its $7.8 or $78 ... This is using an exchange rate of $1/1m.

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I personally wouldn't ever do 50/50 odds, I mean with good bankroll management all you can hope to achieve is break even. At 50/50 I always make my opponent x me, so when the variance equals out I am winning.

 

However, with that being said it is possible to win at 50/50. You simply win by having better bankroll management than your opponent, for example you have 500m and he has 50m and you are doing 10m stakes. You would be "unlucky" to lose, however, he is almost expected to lose. It's called chance of ruin or something like that, he can only withstand 5 loses whereas you can handle 50, it is more likely you will streak 5 than he will streak 50, if you streak 5 he is unable to continue and therefore can never realise his expected value.

 

Still, my final note on this is 50/50 should just break even and isn't really worth it, that is why you see these accounts with 98 97 98 99 who only fight maxed accounts with like 1.2x. 98 97 99 99 requires like 1.03x to break even, so they profit in the long term versus maxed accounts at 1.2x.

 

Seen the guys doing 100-1000m at 1.1x vs maxed accounts, look at the expected value:

 

Player one: 49% - 100,000,000

Player two: 51% - 110,000,000

 

(0.49 * 110000000) + (0.51 * -100000000) = 2,900,000 or 29m for 1000m vs 1100m... Thats $2.9 or $29 PER FIGHT! in expected value.

 

At 1.2x its $7.8 or $78 ... This is using an exchange rate of $1/1m.

 

I see, thank you for your explanation. What would your personal advice be for a maxed main with like 50m bank who would like to get to 100m only but "safely"? I don't mind low gp/h, I just want to make a few mills to buy some gear without the risk of losing my entire bank.

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I see, thank you for your explanation. What would your personal advice be for a maxed main with like 50m bank who would like to get to 100m only but "safely"? I don't mind low gp/h, I just want to make a few mills to buy some gear without the risk of losing my entire bank.

 

Safely - Don't go to the duel arena. Do zulrah or something.

 

I personally don't feel "qualified" to give advice on maxed staking, my only opinion of it is you can expect to break even or get cleaned if you do bets outside of your bankroll and for 50/50 odds I'd imagine you needs 50+ bets to eliminate variance. The only real advice I can give is make a new account for staking, if you really want to stake. That's the only way I could give advice, I also put a small guide to making good staking builds on assume's staking thread. It's on one of the last few pages, quite detailed.

 

Literally the only way to profit in the duel arena is to have positive expected value and a good bankroll. You could go there and "get lucky" and leave, but the people that do that always return and when they do the variance equals out and they get cleaned lol... Sorry for the lack of any real advice, you'd probably be better of looking into flipping/merching for less risk with a maxed account, staking isn't for maxed accounts in my opinion.

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Safely - Don't go to the duel arena. Do zulrah or something.

 

I personally don't feel "qualified" to give advice on maxed staking, my only opinion of it is you can expect to break even or get cleaned if you do bets outside of your bankroll and for 50/50 odds I'd imagine you needs 50+ bets to eliminate variance. The only real advice I can give is make a new account for staking, if you really want to stake. That's the only way I could give advice, I also put a small guide to making good staking builds on assume's staking thread. It's on one of the last few pages, quite detailed.

 

Literally the only way to profit in the duel arena is to have positive expected value and a good bankroll. You could go there and "get lucky" and leave, but the people that do that always return and when they do the variance equals out and they get cleaned lol... Sorry for the lack of any real advice, you'd probably be better of looking into flipping/merching for less risk with a maxed account, staking isn't for maxed accounts in my opinion.

 

Thank you very much for your insight. I will look into making a good account for staking and using that one instead though. I've "gotten lucky" and went from like 100m to 850m in a few hours only to lose it all later because of my greedy ass and 50/50 chances. I'll keep doing zulrah (1700 KC so kinda tired of it) and maybe a bit of merching/PvMing and create that staking account on the side. I'll read all of your posts to inform myself better. Thank you very much again for the detailed responses and explanations, helped me learn a lot!

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Thank you very much for your insight. I will look into making a good account for staking and using that one instead though. I've "gotten lucky" and went from like 100m to 850m in a few hours only to lose it all later because of my greedy ass and 50/50 chances. I'll keep doing zulrah (1700 KC so kinda tired of it) and maybe a bit of merching/PvMing and create that staking account on the side. I'll read all of your posts to inform myself better. Thank you very much again for the detailed responses and explanations, helped me learn a lot!

 

Glad to have helped, hope it goes well for you :)

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Thought I'd do a semi brag since it will also further show me point about variance over luck.

 

Last night - I had the following percentages - 40% boxing, 60% dds, 63% whip

 

We started out boxing, I required 1.5x but got 2x, 5m for 10m. He won the first two, then I won one, he won the next and I won the next two so I was up 15m. I have won 3 and he has won 3, statistically he should have won more but variance wasn't on his side. Then we changed to doing dds, with no x and we did 10m. I won the first one, up 25m... He then won the next 5 in a row! This is where he left, leaving me down 25m.

 

Now as you can see, I began with variance in my favour but that quickly changed and he streaked with odds against him. Now imagine I only had a 25m bank, I would have been broke and unable to realise my equity (expected value). Now, like I also mentioned about people changing bets, it doesn't matter because they always come back and we only care about our expected value per fight, keep this in mind.

 

Today - Same guy

 

I just logged on, around 40 minutes ago. I should give a little context here actually, after he left I added him to make sure he was leaving and also congratulated him and told him to message me whenever he fancied a rematch. "Good customer service" ;) lol. Soooo.. with the context, I log in now and straight away receive a message, fancy doing 10m's? Of course I fancied it, we fought around 10-15 times and the variance sorted itself out, I won more than I should have (but taking last night into account, probably around right) and ended 20 minutes later up 40m.

 

Long story short, I am not up 15m on him like I should be. The variance has sorted itself out, like it always does and my bank now sits at around 345m (little bank update for those following, total profit now 315m in two weeks with actual game time around 20-25 hours.).

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Final update today, time for netflix and chill :P

 

Up to 365m, total play time approximately 28 hours, total profit 335m, profit per hour 11.9m (2 accounts, so 5.95m/hour).

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Thought I'd do a semi brag since it will also further show me point about variance over luck.

 

Last night - I had the following percentages - 40% boxing, 60% dds, 63% whip

 

We started out boxing, I required 1.5x but got 2x, 5m for 10m. He won the first two, then I won one, he won the next and I won the next two so I was up 15m. I have won 3 and he has won 3, statistically he should have won more but variance wasn't on his side. Then we changed to doing dds, with no x and we did 10m. I won the first one, up 25m... He then won the next 5 in a row! This is where he left, leaving me down 25m.

 

Now as you can see, I began with variance in my favour but that quickly changed and he streaked with odds against him. Now imagine I only had a 25m bank, I would have been broke and unable to realise my equity (expected value). Now, like I also mentioned about people changing bets, it doesn't matter because they always come back and we only care about our expected value per fight, keep this in mind.

 

Today - Same guy

 

I just logged on, around 40 minutes ago. I should give a little context here actually, after he left I added him to make sure he was leaving and also congratulated him and told him to message me whenever he fancied a rematch. "Good customer service" ;) lol. Soooo.. with the context, I log in now and straight away receive a message, fancy doing 10m's? Of course I fancied it, we fought around 10-15 times and the variance sorted itself out, I won more than I should have (but taking last night into account, probably around right) and ended 20 minutes later up 40m.

 

Long story short, I am not up 15m on him like I should be. The variance has sorted itself out, like it always does and my bank now sits at around 345m (little bank update for those following, total profit now 315m in two weeks with actual game time around 20-25 hours.).

 

Why were you boxing with a 40% win chance?

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Why were you boxing with a 40% win chance?

 

Like I said, because he was doing 2x my stake and 40% only requires 1.5x to break even. Below is my expected value per box:

(0.4 * 10000000) + (0.6 * -5000000) = 1,000,000.

 

Win or lose, my expected value is 1,000,000 per box against him, I profit by 1m a stake in the long term.

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Today's update - Up to 430m, total play time approximately 31 hours, total profit 400m, profit per hour 12.9m (2 accounts, so 6.45m/hour).

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Update, decided to sell over 250m (not saying exact amounts lol but over 250m) leaving me with around 115m total on my two accounts. Been playing for a few hours today, 3 max, and am up to approximately 175m.

 

Considering selling another 100, but it will have an effect on how much I'll safely be able to stake per fight, we will see.

 

Anyway, total profit now sits at around 440m, game time 35 hours, profit per hour 12.5m, 6.25m per account per hour.

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Putting this on hold now until the summer, I will probably put some random updates from time to time until then but I won't be playing for anymore than an hour a day until summer so no point really continuing this until then :)

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I never really understood the point of staking scripts and still don't, it's all just random lol. Nice script though,  I'd never be able to make a script like this, or any script at all haha.

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Just so you know, your calculation method is the exact same as mine in the "beta" calculator. Simulations are faster than the calculations that I do in v1 and v2. You shouldn't be getting 4 second calculation times across 300,000 simulations though. My simulation does 100,000 simulations in < 1 second and since the sim is O(n), can be extrapolated to 300,000 very easily.

To your comments about xing, yes in theory xing works; if you're basing your results on expected value. The problem here is no one has a large enough bank roll to support the swings in variance if you're staking 1-5% of your bank roll per stake. This is the reason I have not and refuse to add xing to my script. Variance in Runescape is way too high to be making > 1.1* x's @ bet > 0.10%  of bank roll.

Edited by Assume

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On 30/03/2016 at 8:58 PM, kelthstone said:

I never really understood the point of staking scripts and still don't, it's all just random lol. Nice script though,  I'd never be able to make a script like this, or any script at all haha.

It isn't random, not at all. It seems that way over a small sample, that's variance. If I can make it anyone can, YouTube :P Thank you though :)

 

20 hours ago, Assume said:

Just so you know, your calculation method is the exact same as mine in the "beta" calculator. Simulations are faster than the calculations that I do in v1 and v2. You shouldn't be getting 4 second calculation times across 300,000 simulations though. My simulation does 100,000 simulations in < 1 second and since the sim is O(n), can be extrapolated to 300,000 very easily.

To your comments about xing, yes in theory xing works; if you're basing your results on expected value. The problem here is no one has a large enough bank roll to support the swings in variance if you're staking 1-5% of your bank roll per stake. This is the reason I have not and refuse to add xing to my script. Variance in Runescape is way too high to be making > 1.1* x's @ bet > 0.10%  of bank roll.

Does you're beta calculator takes into consideration both players max hit and combat style/weapon bonuses? I am sure I remember testing your beta calculator awhile back and concluding it didn't consider the difference between strength levels in relation to the players max hit. Maybe you have changed it since then though, it was awhile ago :)

What do you mean no one has a large enough bank? That's a bit of a sweeping statement. Take a look at the duel arena, countless players advertising 100m+ stakes, those players clearly have 1b+ banks (or the player that owns most of those accounts). Anyway, it is my opinion that x'ing is one of the most profitable staking methods but thanks for your input :)

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23 hours ago, Illuminati666 said:

if you sell this you will own the market considering assume never listens to his customers.

Lol thank you but I'd have to learn much more about java before that's a possibility :)

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4 hours ago, NeuroGenix said:

It isn't random, not at all. It seems that way over a small sample, that's variance. If I can make it anyone can, YouTube :P Thank you though :)

 

Does you're beta calculator takes into consideration both players max hit and combat style/weapon bonuses? I am sure I remember testing your beta calculator awhile back and concluding it didn't consider the difference between strength levels in relation to the players max hit. Maybe you have changed it since then though, it was awhile ago :)

What do you mean no one has a large enough bank? That's a bit of a sweeping statement. Take a look at the duel arena, countless players advertising 100m+ stakes, those players clearly have 1b+ banks (or the player that owns most of those accounts). Anyway, it is my opinion that x'ing is one of the most profitable staking methods but thanks for your input :)

It has always accounted for strength levels and max hits. If you're xing @ greater than 1.1 with 100m duels, I'd recommend a bank roll of 100b.

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